The U.S. cellular phone industry is poised for a wave of consolidation that could shrink the market from six national players down to as few as three next year

The wireless carriers are pouring billions of dollars into network upgrades to deliver high-speed data connections in the years ahead. But with nearly half of all Americans already signed up for a wireless plan, industry observers say the market may not be growing fast enough to support six big carriers. Now, a major barrier to consolidation is about to fall as the Federal Communications Commission prepares to lift limits on how much of the cellular airwaves any one carrier can control. The move is expected to trigger a flurry of mergers. For consumers used to cut-throat competition and falling wireless prices, mergers won't mean major changes because there will still be multiple carriers vying for their business. But for an industry that is barely profitable and struggling under huge debt loads, consolidation could be a lifesaver, analysts say. Germany's Deutsche Telekom is reportedly looking to sell its U.S. wireless arm, VoiceStream Wireless. And both AT&T Wireless and Cingular Wireless, a joint venture of SBC Communications and BellSouth, are seen as likely suitors because all three use GSM (Global System for Mobility) and GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) technology. VoiceStream already has a joint venture with Cingular to share systems in California, Nevada and New York.