Policy is the most important…

Published: 7 August 2000 y., Monday
Market of the post-soviet region is still full of paradoxes and continues to wonder the whole world. Take the rate of the shares of the oil-refining companies, for example. It seems, doubling of prices for petroleum during the last 12 months have created favorable conditions for the Russian fund market and must have caused problems in the countries of the Central Europe – they do not get petroleum and are obliged to pay much for the “black gold”. Russians at least possess petroleum; they hold in dependence their neighbors. Alas! Quotations of the shares of the Russian leading companies continue decreasing, and the shares of the oil-refining companies of Central Europe constantly grow.

It would be meaningless to search for the answers to these questions only in the economical area. Subjective evaluations of investors, who think of which countries and consequently companies in these countries are able to provide with long-range stable growth, have decisive impact on the quotations of shares. Here is the wisdom. Whatever attracting the perspectives of the company or whatever impressing the results of its work may be, this have no principal meaning if the company is situated in the country all the portfolio investors turn from.

“Lukoil” is experiencing its best times. The income of the company received last year made 1.3 billions US dollars. And this is more than was expected. The company gained access to the largest oil-bearing provinces of the Arctic Ocean, have sited the competitors at the Caspian region. In essence, “Lukoil” is managing in Iraq now , and this under the circumstances of expected removal of embargo on oil sales makes it the monster at the world-wide scale. But its shares constantly fall and this year have fallen by 6.2%.

And the Czech company «Unipetrol» the authorized capital stock of which is equal 286 millions dollars, this year has increased the quotations of its shares by 7.2 %. The explanation is very simple – Czech is a stable and predictable country, «Unipetrol» – is an indisputable leader in its share market, it is profitable to invest capital in development of such a company.

Majority of the analytics are very worried analyzing such facts; they call them “contradicting to the common sense”. Commercial success has nothing to do with world evaluations of the companies both in financial and investment plan. Naked policy dominates and those who give evaluations to this policy in the certain country. Taking into account that stabilization at the post-soviet region is not expected, it should be said that nor investments neither serious purchases are expected here.

English deny any role of fundamental economical factors at all, stressing predominance of the primitive and immediate aspirations.
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