The Loan: Destroys or Helps?

Published: 27 June 2000 y., Tuesday
XVI century. The war and time of the feasts have just ended. The king looks around: everything is destroyed. King’s councilor springs on to the horse and rides to the richest banker in order to borrow money… (The banker estimates the discount rate and lends money, because he would be courted otherwise)

XXI century. Lithuania. So-called Russian crisis has just ended. Total deflation is calculated every month. Money!!! Everyone is always short of money. The Minister of Finance walks in his cabinet and thinks of where to send his assistant to get a loan. Approximately100 millions USA dollars are expected to be borrowed this autumn.

But something interrupts him. Lithuanian banks remind about them. They could gladly lend those 100 millions dollars. But their discount rate would be one percent more then one of the foreign banks. And it is very interesting if the Minister will pay the greater discount in order to keep money within the country. (If the banks will increase their discount rate for the government the discount rate for the simple entrepreneurs may also rise)

And if the internal debt is raised in such s way, then this will be the historical agreement, because until now the Lithuanian banks lent money to the government only by the way ransoming state securities. Another tendency is also very interesting —the Lithuanian banks are consolidating. They are going to give a loan not separately but together.

Description of the Greatest Debtors.

"In whole the world there is no more dangerous activity than the borrowing of money", George Washington said once. And it’s true. But capitalism wouldn’t have spread so far if it was not for the credit system. Now the economical leaders America and Japan are taking the greatest loans. To tell the truth, American reviewers are not such optimists as it may seem: ”Sure prices of shares may fall and rise, but one day the show ends and then you are naked and you are in debts up to your neck”, - the experts say.

Lithuania plays according other rules. Only those countries can allow themselves to borrow, economical level of which is increasing promptly and those, which are called developed ones. But Lithuania is only on the way towards total development. Our total public debt is 29 percent more than GNP (13 billions Lt). And public debt to the businesses reaches 1.3 billions Lt. According to the experts, it would be very dangerous for Lithuania to borrow more because the country may become insolvent. This would mean both the loss of investments and shortage of money.

Congealed internal market also shows that Lithuania needs money, although the raise in the supply of foreign currency is the evidence about the strengthening of our exporters.

As the economical forecasts in Lithuania are much more stable than political ones there is a hope that home consumption may be increased by our exporters’ money taken here from other countries. But according to the skeptics, after the exporters loose part of their money because of the fall of euro, during a certain period of time they won’t invest in the internal market, with the help of their money they certainly will try to win as large share of foreign market as possible.

It is noticed that the Lithuanian owners borrow mostly in order to survive and revive, not to expand. As "Lietuvos energija", for example: it is going to borrow 80 millions Lt because otherwise it won’t be able to pay off with the Ignalina’s atomic Power Station that supplies energy to her.
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