First significant growth

The economy expanded by 4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the first significant growth registered for 1999, according to the Estonia_s ministry of finance. In the first two quarters of last year, the economy shrank—by almost 6 percent in the first quarter and 2 percent in the second. In the third quarter, the economy grew by a paltry .2 percent. Even with strong year-end growth, the economy in 1999 still contracted overall by 1 percent. But a finance ministry spokesman, Daniel Vaarik, said Monday_s fourth-quarter data meant Estonia was officially out of recession. He said annual GDP growth for 2000 should be around 4 percent. The official said the improved world economy had boosted Estonia_s economic performance. He argued that government steps to reign in spending also underpinned the recovery. Others analysts also pointed to growing consumer demand, an increasingly dynamic banking sector and lower interest rates as key factors. Fast-paced growth followed the implementation of tough market reforms in the early 1990s, with annual growth in Estonia peaking at 11 percent in 1997. But like with other countries in Eastern Europe, the collapse of the Russian market in 1998 came as a blow. Russia was a main export market for many large Estonian industries and farmers, and they were hit especially hard. Like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania also saw growth rates drop following the deepening economic crisis in Russia. But after near-zero growth in 1999, they say they also expected growth rates of between 3-4 percent for 2000.